Feb 01, 2019
Analyst Contact
Vivek Ranjan Misra
040 - 3321 6296
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India Research - Stock Broking
Union Interim Budget 2019-20:
Expansionary Budget
Firstly, despite this being an interim budget, this is certainly a non routine budget. It is a mildly
expansionary budget, largely with the upcoming elections in mind, but has done so without
breaking the bank.
The budget size is Rs. 27.84 lakh crore. Income support to small farmers will help address
stress in rural areas and is positive for rural consumption. Tax cuts, largely aimed at the middle
class, besides pleasing voters will increase consumption. This is in addition to the continued
focus on social sector schemes with an allocation of Rs. 60000 crore towards MGNREGA
and Rs. 75000 crore towards Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi.
The government capex has gone up by 6% quoting Rs. 3.36 lakh crore.
The beneciary of the budget will be consumption related stocks as disposable income both
in rural areas as well as urban areas will increase. However, during the budget, banking stocks
declined due to fears of a scal slippage.
What we also liked is that these measures have been taken without a signicant increase in
the scal decit. Fiscal slippage for the current year (FY2018-19) has been minor, i.e. 3.4% of
GDP vs. initial target of 3.3% of GDP. The estimate is at 3.4% of GDP for FY2019-20, which
is good, considering the committed increases in spending. However, it does seem that the
market is fearful about the scal decit as 10 year yield has moved up by 9 bps.
We were disappointed by the low increase in government capex; however, we would expect
that spending on infrastructure should pick up from FY2020-21E.
Based on the allocations, we think that sectors like Automobile, Agri-based products, FMCG
may gain. Banks may take a hit as bond yields may move up on fears of scal slippage in
Direct taxes:
Individual tax payers with annual taxable income up to Rs. 5 lakh will get full tax rebate.
Note that the tax slab remains the same at Rs. 2.5 lakh only whereas the threshold rebate is
increased to Rs. 12500 from Rs. 2500. Hence individual earnings up to Rs. 5 lakh will not be
liable to pay anything after considering the rebate.
Standard deduction for salaried persons is being raised from Rs. 40000 to Rs. 50000. The
income tax on notional rent from the second self occupied house will be exempted. TDS
provision on rent has been increased from Rs. 180000 to Rs. 240000. Therefore, no TDS has
to be deducted upon rent payment upto Rs. 240000.
TDS provisions applicability on interest earned on bank/post oce deposit is raised from
Rs. 10000 to Rs. 40000.
The rollover benet of capital gains under Sec 54 now can be claimed for two residential
houses for a tax payer having capital gains up to Rs. 2 crore.
Increased MSP by 1.5 times for all 22 crops: Farmers were not getting the full value
of their produce. With an aim to double the income of farmers, the minimum support price
(MSP) of all 22 crops is increased to 50% more than the cost.
Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi (PM-KISAN):
To provide an assured income support to the small and marginal farmers, “Pradhan
Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi (PM-KISAN)” has been launched. Farmers having land
upto 2 hectares will be provided direct income support at the rate of Rs. 6000 per year.
This income support will be transferred directly into the bank accounts of beneciary
farmers in 3 installments of Rs. 2000 each. Around 12 crore small and marginal farmers
are expected to benet from this. The programme is made eective from 1st December
Loan to Farmers, Animal Husbandry & Fisheries:
Amount of interest subvention is doubled. The crop loan to farmers increased to
Rs. 11.68 lakh crore in 2018-19. Soil Health Cards, quality seeds, irrigation scheme and
Neem Coated Urea to remove shortage of fertilizers.
Government has decided to create a separate Department of Fisheries.
Kisan Credit Card Scheme (KCC): Provides 2% interest subvention to the farmers
pursuing the activities of animal husbandry and sheries who avail loan through Kisan
Credit Card. Additional 3% interest subvention in case of timely repayment of loan.
Farmers aected by natural calamity will get the benet of interest subvention of 2%
only for the rst year of the rescheduled loan. Assistance will be provided from National
Disaster Relief Fund (NDRF) and prompt repayment incentive of 3% for the entire
period of rescheduling of their loans can be availed. Rs. 750 crore will be allocated to
Rashtriya Gokul Mission in the current year.
“Rashtriya Kamdhenu Aayog” to be set up for upscaling sustainable genetic
upgradation of cow resources and to enhance production and productivity of cows.
Enhanced agricultural productivity.
Animal welfare to help dairy businesses and other forms of animal husbandry to benet.
Stocks to focus
Avanti Feeds, Apex Frozen, Heritage Foods, Chambal Fertilizers, RCF, LT Foods, KRBL,
Bayer Crop Science, Meghmani Organics, Sharda Cropchem, Rallis India, UPL.
Summary of announcements for key sectors and stocks to focus
Several allocations and schemes to improve the rural sector is expected to translate into
higher 2-wheeler and tractor sales.
Increasing road connectivity across tier 2 and tier 3 towns.
Initiatives to promote electric vehicles using renewable energy to be implemented to
reduce dependency on imports and decrease pollution.
Budget allocation for Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid and Electric vehicles in
India for 2019-20 is Rs. 195 crore.
Increasing road connectivity across Tier 2 and Tier 3 towns will help improve logistics and
is expected to boost commercial vehicles sales.
Stocks to focus
OEMs which manufacture electric vehicles such as TATA Motors and Mahindra & Mahindra.
Investment for road infrastructure to boost commercial vehicle sales and is expected to
benet OEMs such as Ashok Leyland, TATA Motors, Mahindra & Mahindra and Eicher
Auto and Auto Ancillary
Interest subvention for SMEs & Animal Husbandry: Government has introduced
additional interest rate subvention on loan by farmers for animal husbandry activities. SME
loans up to the ticket size of Rs. 1 crore to get 2% interest subvention.
No notional interest on the second owned house.
Government is able to retain scal decit at 3.4 % despite increase in tax exemption limit
and cash transfer to farmers. This will improve consumption and is a mild positive for
consumer loans.
Total allocation of Rs. 60000 crore for MGNREGA (focused on rural infrastructure) has
been set aside this year which was Rs. 55000 crore last year.
Do not see interest subvention on animal husbandry loans having any material impact on
either the demand or credit behavior of loans.
Do not see exemption of notional tax on second owned house to have material impact on
the demand for housing.
Increase in taxable limit would result in a healthy increase in the disposable income of the
salaried segment benetting the consumption driven lending.
Direct income transfer to the framers and increased allocation towards MNREGA would
result in improved rural cash ows.
Interest subvention on SME loans could lead to some improved demand of funds from
SMEs from the formal channels.
Banks & NBFCs
Stocks to focus
The key beneciaries would be Indusind Bank and HDFC Bank having the most diversied
loan exposure (including Micro Finance). Mahindra Finance could benet from improved
sentiment from rural focus. No reduction/abolishing of LTCG tax is negative for highly
valued stock (Kotak Mahindra Bank).
Banks & NBFCs
For FY20, capital expenditure increased by 9.9% to Rs. 1.01 lakh crore.
Allocation for capital procurement increased by 10% to Rs.1.03 lakh crore from Rs. 0.94 lakh
. Allocation towards Army, Navy and Air Force increased by 9.8%, 10.8% and 9.9% to
Rs. 0.29 lakh
, Rs. 0.23 lakh
, Rs. 0.39 lakh crore respectively.
R&D budget is close to ~10.1% of capital procurement.
Other equipments budget is close to ~32.41% of capital procurement.
Allocation for capital procurement is meager and would only suce for servicing committed
liabilities and we do not expect any llip to armed forces modernization program. However,
established players participating in the existing programs would benet from this budget.
Stocks to focus
BEL, Astra Microwave Products and Premier Explosives - could be the key beneciaries
for these initiatives.
Under Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samaan Nidhi, govt. intends to provide Rs. 6000 to bank
accounts of nearly 12 crore farmers with less than 2 Hectares of land. Total outlay for the
govt. is expected to be Rs. 75000 crore.
Salaried class with income upto Rs. 5 lakh to get a full rebate. Additional exemptions have
also been proposed to the tax structure.
Government plans to create digital infrastructure in 1 lakh villages over the next ve
years. This should lead to a better supply chain management benetting food and food
processing industry.
These measures will increase disposable income across the rural and urban middle class,
thereby leading to increased demand and consumption in the FMCG space.
Stocks to focus
Companies in consumption sector such as Nestle, Britannia, Tata Global Beverages, Varun
Beverages, HUL, Dabur, Colgate Palmolive stand to benet from increased consumption.
Allocation of Rs. 60000 crore for MGNREGA.
PM Kisan Samman Yojana providing support of Rs. 6000 p.a.
2-5% interest subvention for farmers stuck by natural calamities.
Increased MSP by 1.5 times for all 22 crops.
Micro Irrigation schemes to be given attention- allocation amounts are awaited.
Aforesaid measures initiated under Budget 2019-20 will leave farmers with higher
disposable income which may result in increased demand for consumption and irrigation
Stocks to focus
KRBL Limited, LT Foods Ltd, VST Industries Ltd, Jain Irrigation Systems Ltd, etc.
Food & Staples
Increased Spending on Ayushman Bharat: Close to 10 lakh patients have thus far
been treated under Ayushman Bharat program, aimed at provided medical aid to 50 crore
beneciaries. Actual spend since its inception in September 2018 has been Rs. 3,000
crore, which is in line with governments estimate of Rs. 10000 crore to Rs. 12000 crore
yearly healthcare expenditure.
Standard deduction limit set at Rs. 50000: For salaried persons, standard deduction
limit, which comprises of annual medical reimbursement and conveyance allowance, has
been raised from Rs. 40000 to Rs. 50000 given the rise in cost ination and medical ination
in particular. The increase in the standard deduction will lead to a greater allocation of
money towards drug spend by individuals, leading to benet of entire range of companies
in the domestic formulation space.
Continued welfare through Pradhan Mantri Jan Aushadhi Kendras: Price caps on
essential medicines, cardiac stents and knee implants continue to exist and are made
available through Jan Aushadhi stores.
Positive impact on healthcare sector as government spending is in line with estimates.
Negative impact on manufacturers of cardiac stents and knee implants.
Stocks to focus
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd, Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories Ltd, Apollo Hospitals
Enterprise Ltd, Thyrocare Technologies Ltd, GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals Ltd, Cipla
Ltd, Dr. Lal Path Labs, Fortis Healthcare Ltd & Lupin Ltd.
Healthcare & Pharma
Notional rent exempted for second self occupied house: Currently, income tax on
notional rent is payable if one has more than one self-occupied house. Notional rent on a
second self-occupied house will be exempt from income tax.
Rollover of capital gains under section 54(More than 1 Residential House): The
benet of rollover of capital gains under section 54 of the Income Tax Act will be increased
from investment in one residential house to two residential houses for a tax payer having
capital gains up to Rs. 2 crore. This benet can be availed once in a life time.
Extension of benets of Sec 80 IBA of the Income Tax Act (Aordable Housing
Scheme): For making more homes available under aordable housing, the benets under
Section 80-IBA of the Income Tax Act is being extended for one more year, i.e. to the
housing projects approved till 31st March, 2020.
Tax on notional rent on unsold inventories: For giving impetus to the real estate sector,
it is proposed to extend the period of exemption from levy of tax on notional rent on unsold
inventories from one year to two years from the end of the year in which the project is
Higher disposable income would mean increased investments in the housing/ real estate
Infrastructure and ancillary businesses like cement and construction material businesses
would get boosted.
Real estate developers would also be benetted from all aspects of the interim budget
Stocks to focus
Sunteck Realty, Phoenix Mills, PSP Projects, Puravankara, Oberoi Realty, Prestige,
Kolte-Patil, NCC, Godrej Properties, India Bulls Real Estate, DBRealty.
Housing/ Real Estate
Government will make 1 lakh villages into digital villages in the next 5 years.
Digitization of export/import transactions.
To promote Articial Intelligence and related technologies: To envisage a national
level Articial Intelligence program by setting up National Centre on Articial Intelligence
as a hub along with Centre of Excellence. A national articial intelligence portal will be
This would entail setting up of digital infrastructure, improve connectivity and digitization of
many services leading to increased usage of digital solutions.
This requires complete revamp of existing infrastructure at ports and related entities. We
believe this has huge potential.
This will increase requirement of AI-powered technologies and solutions.
Stocks to focus
Infosys, TCS, HCL Tech and Tech Mahindra.
Information Technology
Capital support for Roads & Highways is pegged at Rs. 36691 crore in 2019-20(BE) vs
Rs. 37322 crore in 2018-19 (RE). The overall capital expenditure is pegged at Rs.111691
crore vs Rs.99322 crore.
Capital support for Railways is pegged at Rs. 64587 crore in 2019-20(BE) vs Rs. 53060
crore in 2018-19 (RE). The Railways overall capital expenditure is pegged at Rs.158658
crore vs Rs. 138857 crore.
Budget support for Shipping is pegged at Rs. 200 crore in 2019-20(BE) vs Rs. 125 crore
in 2018-19 (RE). The overall capital expenditure is pegged at Rs.5778 crore vs Rs. 5548
Focus on improving the sector has continued. By laying the foundation for India’s growth
and development, the Minister has emphasized on 10 important dimensions of which rst
dimension is Infrastructure.
This dimension focuses on building physical and social infrastructure comprising next
generation infrastructure of roads, railways, seaports, airports, urban transport, gas and
electric transmission and inland waterways. On the social infrastructure side, housing for
all and basic sanitation needs is proposed.
While highlighting the achievements of being the fastest highway developer (27 Kms
construction per day) in the world to kick starting the stuck projects, emphasis on agship
programs like Bharatmala, Sagaramla will be continued.
Infrastructure & Railways
While unexpected, there is no major increase in infrastructure expenditure and this will
hamper the growth of the sector in near term. However, in view of the continued focus, we
expect a more sector friendly allocation in the coming budgets.
Stocks to focus
KNR Constructions, Ashoka Buildcon, HG Infra, SKF India and Timken.
Infrastructure & Railways
Govt. proposes ‘Prime Minister Shram-Yogi Maandhan’ for 10 crore un organised sector
workers with a monthly salary of up to Rs.15000 will get a pension of Rs. 3000 after 60 yrs
of age at a premium of Rs. 100 between age of 29-60 years and for age above 18 years,
the premium of Rs. 55.
Out of the 10 crore organised workers, 6 lakh workers who have a PF account will benet
from a 4% increase in PF contribution from the government.
4% increase in PF contribution will result in additional ~Rs. 36 crore of pension funds
consequently increasing the liquidity in the market.
With the implementation of ‘Prime Minister Shram-Yogi Maandhan’ scheme, there will be
an inow of Rs. 2.9 crore in to the market by means of premium.
The agship programme of Sagarmala along the coastal areas of the country will develop
ports for faster handling of import and export cargo.
For the rst time, container freight movement has started on inland waterways from Kolkata
to Varanasi.
Government will introduce container cargo movement to the North East as well, by
improving the navigation capacity of the Brahmaputra river.
The focus on the development of handling shipping cargo in the country through the
Sagarmala project will help in increasing the share of shipping in the logistics mix of India
which is currently at 6%.
The emphasis on developing inland waterways of the country will help more landlocked
portions of the country gain easier access to imports and exports.
The focus on increasing access to the North East will open up a hitherto neglected area
and subsequently open new markets to the country and the world in general.
Stocks to focus
Shreyas Shipping, Shipping Corporation of India, GESCO.
Stocks to focus
ICICI Prudential Life Insurance will benet from the announcements with change in product
mix from ULIP to protection but the eect will ultimately be detrimental for the rm on
increasing competitive price pressure from other major players like Bajaj FinServ, SBI Life,
HDFC Life, TI Financials, and Max Financial Services being laggards in the game.
ICICI Lombard will be appeased from the announcement on increasing expenditure on
health insurance market push from govt. schemes particularly from Ayushman Bharat’.
The single window clearance was earlier available only for foreign lmmakers, which is
now going to be made available to Indian lmmakers as well.
Will reduce red tape.
Stocks to focus
UFO Moviez India, Balaji Telelms.
Media and Entertainment
Allocation for railways for FY20 has been increased by 21% coupled with higher defence
budget by 9.9% is expected to have an expansionary eect on the sector. Also, increase in
number of homes under Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana will act as a catalyst.
Although there has been no announcement directly impacting metals & mining sector but
the stimulus that has been provided to housing, defence and railways are likely to improve
demand for iron & steel and other metals.
Stocks to focus
GMDC, Tata Sponge, NMDC and MOIL.
Metals & Mining
The Finance Minister in his interim budget targets 8 crore free LPG connections under
Ujjwala scheme by 2020, out of which 6 crore have already been given.
Transforming the system of bidding for exploration & changing from revenue sharing to
exploration program for category 2 and category 3 basins.
The Finance Minister also said that the use of Bio fuel and alternate technologies would
help reduce pollution and reduce the burden of import of crude oil and gas.
The impact of these announcements made would serve for the best of the poor and the
environment. More & more use of renewable energy, bio-fuel and alternate technologies
would help bring down the pollution levels India faces.
Stocks to focus
Exploration companies like Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) would benet as the
government would make it more luring and convenient for these rms to produce more oil
and gas.
Gas companies like Mahanagar Gas Ltd (MGL) & Indraprastha Gas Ltd (IGL) would benet
as the government urges to use more of cleaner fuels to reduce pollution.
Oil & Gas
Exhibit: Budget at a Glance (Rs. Cr.)
1. Revenue Receipts 1435233 1729682 1977693
2. Tax Revenue (Net to Centre) 1242488 1484406 1705046
3. Non Tax Revenue 192745 245276 272647
4. Capital Receipts ¹ 706742 727553 806507
5. Recovery of Loans 15633 13155 12508
6. Other Receipts 100045 80000 90000
7. Borrowings and Other Liabilities² 591064 634398 703999
8. Total Receipts (1+4) 2141975 2457235 2784200
9. Total Expenditure (10+13) 2141975 2457235 2784200
10. On Revenue Account of which 1878835 2140612 2447907
11. Interest Payments 528952 587570 665061
12. Grants in Aid for creation of capital assets 191034 200300 200740
13. On Capital Account 263140 316623 336293
14. Revenue Decit
15. Eective Revenue Decit
16. Fiscal Decit
17. Primary Decit (16-11) 62112
Source: Budget Documents, Karvy Research; RE: Revised Estimates, BE: Budget Estimates
¹ Excluding receipts under Market Stabilisation Scheme.
² Includes drawdown of cash Balance.
(i). GDP for BE 2019-2020 has been projected at Rs. 21007439 crore assuming 11.5 % growth over the estimated GDP.
of Rs. 18840731 crore for 2018-2019(RE).
(ii). Individual items in this document may not sum up to the totals due to rounding o.
(iii). Figures in parenthesis are as a percentage of GDP.
Budget Profile
(Money Comes From Money Goes To)
 
y Analyst certication: The following analyst(s), Vivek Ranjan Misra, who is (are) primarily responsible for this report and whose
name(s) is/are mentioned there in, certify (ies) that the views expressed herein accurately reect his (their) personal view(s) about
the subject security (ies) and issuer(s) and that no part of his (their) compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the
specic recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report.
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